Cognitive Science Program

Simple heuristics that make us smart (1999)
Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter M Todd and ABC Research Group
Oxford University Press, USA.

Abstract

Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. Traditional views of rationality tend to see decision makers as possessing superhuman powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and all of eternity in which to ponder choices. To understand decisions in the real world, we need a different, more psychologically plausible notion of rationality, and this book provides it. It is about fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules for making decisions when time is pressing and deep thought an unaffordable luxury. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices, classifications, and predictions by employing bounded rationality. But when and how can such fast and frugal heuristics work? Can judgments based simply on one good reason be as accurate as those based on many reasons? Could less knowledge even lead to systematically better predictions than more knowledge? Simple Heuristics explores these questions, developing computational models of heuristics and testing them through experiments and analyses. It shows how fast and frugal heuristics can produce adaptive decisions in situations as varied as choosing a mate, dividing resources among offspring, predicting high school drop out rates, and playing the stock market. As an interdisciplinary work that is both useful and engaging, this book will appeal to a wide audience. It is ideal for researchers in cognitive psychology, evolutionary psychology, and cognitive science, as well as in economics and artificial intelligence. It will …

Designing neural networks using genetic algorithms (1989)
Geoffrey F Miller, Peter M Todd and Shailesh U Hegde
Proceedings of the third international conference on Genetic algorithms, 379-384

Abstract

We present a genetic algorithm method that evolves neural network architectures for specific tasks. Each network architecture is represented as a connection constraint matrix mapped directly into a bit-string genotype. Modified standard genetic operators act on populations of these genotypes to produce network architectures with higher fitnesses over succes-sive generations. Architecture fitness is assessed by training particular network instantiations and recording their final performance error. Three applications of this method to simple network mapping tasks are discussed.

Fast and frugal heuristics: The adaptive toolbox (1999)
Gerd Gigerenzer and Peter M Todd
Oxford University Press. 3-34

Abstract

Truth is ever to be found in simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things. As the world, which to the maked eye exhibits the greatest variety of objects, appears very simple in its internal constitution when surveyed by a philosophical understanding, and so much the simpler by how much the better it is understood. Isaac NewtonA man is rushed to a hospital in the throes of a heart attack. The doctor needs to decide quickly whether the victim should be treated as a lowrisk or a high-risk patient. He is at high risk if his life is truly threatened, and should receive the most expensive and detailed care. Although this decision can save or cost a life, the doctor does not have the luxury of extensive deliberation: She or he must decide under time pressure using only the available cues, each of which is, at best, merely an uncertain predictor of the patient's risk level. For instance, at the University of California, San …

Précis of Simple heuristics that make us smart (2000)
Peter M Todd and Gerd Gigerenzer
Behavioral and brain sciences, 23 (5), 727-741

Abstract

How can anyone be rational in a world where knowledge is limited, time is pressing, and deep thought is often an unattainable luxury? Traditional models of unbounded rationality and optimization in cognitive science, economics, and animal behavior have tended to view decision-makers as possessing supernatural powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and endless time. But understanding decisions in the real world requires a more psychologically plausible notion of bounded rationality. In Simple heuristics that make us smart (Gigerenzer et al. 1999), we explore fast and frugal heuristics – simple rules in the mind's adaptive toolbox for making decisions with realistic mental resources. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices quickly and with a minimum of information by exploiting the way that information is structured in particular environments. In this précis …

Can there ever be too many options? A meta-analytic review of choice overload (2010)
Benjamin Scheibehenne, Rainer Greifeneder and Peter M Todd
Journal of consumer research, 37 (3), 409-425

Abstract

The choice overload hypothesis states that an increase in the number of options to choose from may lead to adverse consequences such as a decrease in the motivation to choose or the satisfaction with the finally chosen option. A number of studies found strong instances of choice overload in the lab and in the field, but others found no such effects or found that more choices may instead facilitate choice and increase satisfaction. In a meta-analysis of 63 conditions from 50 published and unpublished experiments (N = 5,036), we found a mean effect size of virtually zero but considerable variance between studies. While further analyses indicated several potentially important preconditions for choice overload, no sufficient conditions could be identified. However, some idiosyncratic moderators proposed in single studies may still explain when and why choice overload reliably occurs; we review these studies and …

Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world (2012)
Peter M Todd, Gerd Gigerenzer and the ABC Research Group
Oxford University Press USA.

Abstract

Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world explores how people can be effective decision makers by using simple heuristics that fit well into the structure of the environment. When we wield the right tool from the mind's adaptive toolbox for a particular situation, we can make good choices with little information or computation. Thus, simple strategies excel by exploiting the reliable patterns in the world. Heuristics are not good or bad," biased" or" unbiased," on their own, but only in relation to the setting in which they are used. The authors demonstrate this principle through case studies of heuristics and environments fitting together to produce good decisions, in situations including sports competitions, the search for a parking space, business group meetings, and doctor/patient interactions. The message of Ecological rationality is to study mind and environment in tandem. Intelligence is not only in the mind but also …

Bounding rationality to the world (2003)
Peter M Todd and Gerd Gigerenzer
Journal of Economic Psychology, 24 (2), 143-165

Abstract

Simon proposed that human rationality is bounded by both internal (mental) and external (environmental) constraints. Traditionally, these constraints have been seen as independent, leading to a notion of bounded rationality that is either the attempt to do as well as possible given the demands of the world – the notion of optimization under constraints – or as the suboptimal outcome of the limited cognitive system – the realm of cognitive illusions. But there is a third possibility, following Simon’s original conception: rather than being unrelated, the two sets of bounds may fit together like the blades in a pair of scissors. The mind can take advantage of this fit to make good decisions, by using mental mechanisms whose internal structure exploits the external information structures available in the environment. In this paper we lay out a research program for studying simple decision heuristics of this sort that expands on …

Mate choice turns cognitive (1998)
Geoffrey F Miller and Peter M Todd
Trends in cognitive sciences, 2 (5), 190-198

Abstract

Evolutionary psychology has revolutionized research on human mate choice and sexual attraction in recent years, combining a rigorous Darwinian framework based on sexual selection theory with a loosely cognitivist orientation to task analysis and mechanism modelling. This hard Darwinian, soft computational approach has been most successful at revealing the adaptive logic behind physical beauty, demonstrating that many sexual cues computed from face and body shape are not arbitrary, but function as reliable indicators of phenotypic and genetic quality. The same approach could be extended from physical to psychological cues if evolutionary psychology built stronger ties with personality psychology, psychometrics and behavioral genetics. A major challenge for mate choice research is to develop more explicit computational models at three levels, specifying: (1) the perceptual adaptations that register …

Different cognitive processes underlie human mate choices and mate preferences (2007)
Peter M Todd, Lars Penke, Barbara Fasolo and Alison P Lenton
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104 (38), 15011-15016

Abstract

Based on undergraduates9 self-reports of mate preferences for various traits and self-perceptions of their own levels on those traits, Buston and Emlen [Buston PM, Emlen ST (2003) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 100:8805–8810] concluded that modern human mate choices do not reflect predictions of tradeoffs from evolutionary theory but instead follow a “likes-attract” pattern, where people choose mates who match their self-perceptions. However, reported preferences need not correspond to actual mate choices, which are more relevant from an evolutionary perspective. In a study of 46 adults participating in a speed-dating event, we were largely able to replicate Buston and Emlen9s self-report results in a pre-event questionnaire, but we found that the stated preferences did not predict actual choices made during the speed-dates. Instead, men chose women based on their physical attractiveness, whereas women, who …

Environments That Make Us Smart: Ecological Rationality (2007)
Peter M Todd and Gerd Gigerenzer
Current Directions in Psychological Science, 16 (3), 167-171

Abstract

Traditional views of rationality posit general-purpose decision mechanisms based on logic or optimization. The study of ecological rationality focuses on uncovering the “adaptive toolbox” of domain-specific simple heuristics that real, computationally bounded minds employ, and explaining how these heuristics produce accurate decisions by exploiting the structures of information in the environments in which they are applied. Knowing when and how people use particular heuristics can facilitate the shaping of environments to engender better decisions.

Fast and frugal heuristics for environmentally bounded minds (2001)
Peter M Todd
Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox, 51-70

Abstract

Understanding what constraints put bounds on human rationality will help us understand the nature of that rationality. Human decision making is unlikely to be adapted to fixed cognitive constraints, because evolution could shift such limitations were benefits sufficient. Instead, features of the external environment would have exerted strong adaptive pressures, particularly the need to minimize time by minimizing the search for information. In this chapter, I present evidence that human decision making is adaptive in the face of time and information costs, through the use of fast and frugal decision heuristics. These heuristics can be shown analytically to perform nearly as well as slower and more information-greedy algorithms, and evidence that people use these simple strategies has been found in experiments, developmental theories, and analysis of how we restructure our own environments.INTRODUCTION: THE SOURCE OF RATIONALITY'S BOUNDS

Evolution and cognition (1999)
GERD Gigerenzer, PM Todd and ABC Research Group
Simple heuristics that make us smart. New York, NY, US: Oxford University Press.

A connectionist approach to algorithmic composition (1989)
Peter M Todd
Computer Music Journal, 13 (4), 27-43

Abstract

With the advent of von Neumann-style computers, widespread exploration of new methods of music composition became possible. For the first time, complex sequences of carefully specified symbolic operations could be performed in a rapid fashion. Composers could develop algorithms embodying the compositional rules they were interested in and then use a computer to carry out these algorithms. In this way, composers could soon tell whether the results of their rules held artistic merit. This ap-proach to algorithmic composition, based on the wedding between von Neumann computing ma-chinery and rule-based software systems, has been prevalent for the past thirty years. The arrival of a new paradigm for computing has made a different approach to algorithmic composi-tion possible. This new computing paradigm is called parallel distributed processing (PDP), also known as connectionism. Computation is per …

Accurate judgments of intention from motion cues alone: A cross-cultural study (2005)
H Clark Barrett, Peter M Todd, Geoffrey F Miller and Philip W Blythe
Evolution and Human Behavior, 26 (4), 313-331

Abstract

One of our most fundamental cognitive adaptations is the ability to infer the intentions of others. Whole-body motion is a reliable, valid, easily perceived source of information about intentions because different kinds of intentional action have different motion signatures. In this study, we report four experiments that examined the ability of German adults, German children, and Shuar adults from Amazonian Ecuador to distinguish, on the basis of motion cues alone, between six categories of intentional interaction: chasing, fighting, courting, following, guarding, and playing. Naturalistic motion trajectories were elicited from untutored participants in a game-like situation with performance-based monetary payoffs and were categorized by other participants in a forced-choice design. On a six-category task, German adults correctly categorized intention 75% of the time (where 17% represents chance performance). On a four …

From Pride and Prejudice to Persuasion: Satisficing in Mate Search (1999)
Geoffrey F. Miller and Peter M. Todd
Simple heuristics that make us smart, 287-308

Abstract

In 1611, the first wife of astronomer Johannes Kepler (1571-1630) died of cholera in Prague. Liherated from an arranged and unhappy marriage, Kepler immediately hegan a methodical search for a replacement. Though short, unhealthy, and the son of a poor mercenary, Kepler had an MA in theology from Tubingen, succeeded Tycho Brahe as imperial mathematician of the Holy Roman empire, and had recently hecome famous for explaining how eyeglasses can correct myopia (Ad Vitellionem Paralipomena, 1604), documenting a supernova (De Stella Nova, 1606l, and demonstrating that the orbit of Mars is an ellipse (Astronomia Nova, 1609). He was a good catch. Relentlessly courting, Kepler investigated 11 possihle replacements in the two years after his wife's death, In a letter to Baron Strahlendorf written shortly after marrying candidate numher five in 1613, Kepler descrihed this methodical mate search. Friends urged Kepler to choose candidate numher four, a woman of high status and tempting dowry, hut she rejected him for having toyed with her too long, so Kepler was free to settle with his most-preferred numher five. Kepler chose well: His new wife, though not of the highest rank or dowry, was well-educated, hore him seven children, and provided the domestic infrastructure for Kepler to puhlish four more major works laying the empirical foundations for Newton's law of gravity, and. incidentally, to save his mother from heing hurned at the stake as a witch in 1620 (see Ferguson, 1989: Koestler. 1960l.